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This course will explore
in depth the concept of "scenarios" -- images of alternative futures
-- why they are theoretically important in futures studies, where
images emerge in society, how they are linked to emerging trends
and critical issues of change, how they are used in advertising
and politics, etc. Participants will engage in an "image hunt" and
in the process develop a taxonomy to aid identifying, categorizing,
and analyzing images of the future. One of the key goals of the
course is developing participants' own fluency in identifying and
synthesizing images of alternative futures for scenario-building.
Assignments:
- any three of the following
four 1-2 page reports: 1) map the predominance of a religious
view of the future in the world as represented by populations
of its adherence; 2) choose a new political/party or movement
and research its growth over the last 5-10 years; 3) choose a
technology development scenario and ID indicators of its development;
and 4) choose an environmental scenario and ID indicators of its
development -- each are 10% of the final grade, completing three
results in a combined total of 30% of the final grade;
- read one analysis
of some critical trend of change along with a related speculative
fiction book which portrays the future implied by that trend,
and compare (5-7 pages) -- 20% of final grade;
- compare two different
consultant's scenarios for approach, data and trend use, and presentation
(5-7 pages) -- 20% of final grade;
- draft three scenarios
on the subject of your choice; identify for readers' benefit the
assumptions and trends you used, and what indicators should be
monitored to evaluate probability of the scenarios (approximately
10 pages) -- 30% of final grade.
Formats for each assignment/class
activity: specific, detailed descriptions of the format and content
required for each assignment to be handed in will be included in
the coursepack. As an example, the book report format is described
below.
Abilities/Outcomes:
- Master approaches
to identifying, classifying, and analyzing images of the future
in different format and media;
- Develop a taxonomy
of images of the future;
- Establish personal
database on scenarios relating to different issues and sectors
of society for use in further futures research;
- Practice drafting
scenarios of alternative futures;
- Communicate the above
clearly to others via discussion, presentation, and writing;
- Use the Internet and
WorldWide Web for research.
Required Texts
STEARNS, Peter N.
Millenium III, Century XXI
1996 Boulder: Westview Press.
HILLIGAS, Mark
The Future as Nightmare: H.G. Wells and the anti-utopians.
1967
Arcturus Books/Southern Illinois Univ. Press
Supplemental/Recommended
The following books will be on reserve:
ALDISS, Brian and David
WINGROVE
Trillion Year Spree: The True History of Science Fiction
1988 London: Paladin
CORN, Joseph J. and Brian
HORRIGAN
Yesterday's Tomorrows: Past Visions of the American Future
1984 New York: Summit Books
HAWKEN, Peter, James
OGILVY, and Peter SCHWARTZ
Seven Tomorrows
1982 New York: Bantam.
STABLEFORD, Brian and
David LANGFORD
The Third Millenium: A History of the World AD 2000-3000
1988 London: Paladin.
W*I*R*E*D
WIRED SCENARIOS 1.01
January 1996
FORMAT: BOOK REPORTS
Header: Author. Name of the Book. Place published: publisher,
date of publication. Number of pages.
Body/non-fiction:
After stating all the pertinent information listed above, a book
review should contain at least a paragraph (conventionally
at least four sentences long) on each of the following:
- Why did you pick this
book to review (liked the cover? friend recommended it? threw
darts at the book list? came to you in a dream?);
- Brief explanation
of the idea or argument the author is making about the world,
trends in change, crises, or whatever (please include a mention
of how or where facts were obtained to support this argument);
- Implications: the
author is, presumably, describing some startling change or crisis
situation. What changes does this imply for social systems? political
systems? economic systems? technology? the environment? what else?
you will need to think about this in order to compare the author's
implications with the details offered by the artists' scenario
offered in the speculative fiction work you have chosen.
- Was the book interesting,
well-written, and did you enjoy it? Why or why not?
Body/speculative fiction:
After stating all the pertinent information listed above, a book
review should contain at least a paragraph (conventionally
at least four sentences long) on each of the following:
- Again, briefly explain
why you chose this book (presumably, because you thought it represented
a scenario linked to the non-fiction book you chose);
- Brief summary of the
plot or narrative: this will certainly take more than one paragraph,
but should take less than six -- do, however, mention crucial
information like the main character's name, where and when the
action takes place, etc.;
- Describe as best you
can, from what the author describes outright or implies, a) what
system of governance exists in this future; b) what the characteristics
of the economic system are (production, distribution, currency);
c) any really startling social innovations (people are all one
gender; nobody can hear; everyone has an extra set of thumbs;
group marriage covenants; etc.
- What has the artist
told you that the analyst did not? What were the most riveting
details (i.e., details that caught your fancy, totally revolted
you, or otherwise snapped you to attention) the artist extrapolated
from the patterns of change suggested by the analyst? What weaknesses
or logical inconsistencies can you find in the artist's scenario?
- Finally, did the author
write the story well? Did you enjoy the book itself? Why or why
not?
This looks like requirements
for a twenty-page paper, but trust me, it isn't. Be concise; try
just sketching succinctly the authors' key thoughts and your impressions.
YOUR IMPRESSIONS are critical -- and don't just say you like or
didn't like some aspect of this future, say WHY. Be as specific
as possible; citing descriptive phrases from the work helps.
One more thing: I am
a compulsive editor, and it is possible that your book report will
be returned to you with red corrections all over it. THIS WILL IN
NO WAY AFFECT YOUR GRADE, WHICH IS BASED SOLELY ON CONTENT. On the
other hand, experience tells me that salable skills in business
include the ability to write clearly, logically, and, where possible,
elegantly. This editing service is extended as an aid to improving
your writing skills. If you have any questions, or are totally outraged,
please come talk. WLS
examples of trend analyses with matched speculative
fiction:
analysis ///
///
speculative fiction
environmental holocaust:
CARSON, Rachel. Silent Spring
///BRUNNER, John. The Sheep Look Up
feminist social reconstruction:
EISLER, Riane. The Chalice and the Blade
///TEPPER, Sheri S. The Gate to Women's Country
OR BRIN, David Glory Season
religious fundamentalism:
MOJTABAI, A.G. Blessed Assurance: at home with the bomb
in Amarillo, Texas
///ATWOOD, Margaret. The Handmaid's Tale
[book or movie]
OR The Rapture [movie]
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